Flutter Q3 2026 results: third guidance cut as FanDuel EBITDA falls to $3m

Flutter Entertainment cut full-year profit guidance for the third consecutive quarter on Wednesday, as the Flutter Q3 2026 results showed FanDuel's adjusted EBITDA falling 94% to $3 million and a group net loss of $1.148 billion.

Group revenue rose 2% to $3.874 billion, short of the $4.02 billion Wall Street consensus compiled by MarketBeat. Adjusted EBITDA fell 25% to $360 million from $478 million a year earlier, and the margin narrowed 330 basis points to 9.3%, according to the earnings release as reported by Gambling Insider. iGB, SBC News and GamblingNews carry the same revenue and EBITDA figures.

The GAAP net loss widened 46% from $789 million, equal to $4.90 per share against $3.91. Adjusted earnings per share was a loss of 18 cents; analysts had expected a profit of 34 cents, Gambling Insider reported.

FanDuel broke even and still gave up GGR share

US revenue rose 6% to $1.455 billion and handle 13% to $12.023 billion, while US adjusted EBITDA dropped to $3 million from $51 million a year earlier, and from $119 million in the second quarter. Flutter put the decline down to spending on its prediction market product and its July launch in Alberta, iGB reported.

Management had guided to roughly breakeven in August, and promotional spend came in at 6.0% of handle, up 60 basis points, as forecast. US sales and marketing expense rose 16% to $357 million.

FanDuel's sportsbook gross gaming revenue share fell to 36% from 39% in the second quarter. Dan Taylor, in his first results as CEO after replacing Peter Jackson on 1 October, told analysts the extra promotional spend announced in August was "beginning to pay off, delivering market share gains in August and September." Chief financial officer Rob Coldrake told Needham analyst Bernie McTernan that Flutter feels "vindicated in terms of the investment that we laid out at Q2." Gambling Insider notes that both can hold: customer-friendly sports results cost the US business about $38 million in revenue, which cuts GGR share even where FanDuel takes a larger slice of the market's bets.

FanDuel Predicts drew 66,000 average monthly players and $119 million of volume in the third quarter, with revenue described as "not material." Taylor said the platform had about 140,000 actives in October.

Brazil write-down and the UK duty increase

A $873 million non-cash impairment on the Brazilian business accounted for much of the loss. Of that, $537 million post-tax is attributable to Flutter's 56% stake in Flutter Brazil, the business built on the $356 million purchase of Betnacional owner NSX Group, iGB reported.

Brazil's regulated market shut on 26 September after a provisional measure banned fixed-odds betting and online gaming. Flutter closed Betfair in the country; Betnacional is now its only brand there. Taylor said in his shareholder letter that the company was "very disappointed" with the measure: "In response, we have acted decisively; our operations are currently closed, and we have paused all discretionary and uncommitted spend." He added that "with the right regulation, Brazil still has the opportunity to be an attractive market for us."

International revenue was flat at $2.419 billion and adjusted EBITDA fell 14% to $435 million, with the margin down 280 basis points to 18.0%. Flutter pointed to the UK's remote gaming duty rising to 40% from 21% on 1 April. The company has announced a restructuring in which about 1,400 UK and Ireland roles could go, iGB reported. UK and Ireland revenue still rose 4% to $889 million as iGaming grew 12% to $540 million and sportsbook revenue fell 6%.

Guidance, leverage and the paused buyback

Flutter lowered the midpoint of 2026 group adjusted EBITDA guidance by $160 million to $2.495 billion and revenue guidance by $300 million to $17.61 billion. Counting August's cut, the profit midpoint is down $370 million, or 13%, from $2.865 billion. International guidance fell $115 million to $2.09 billion; US guidance fell $45 million to $715 million.

Leverage rose to 4.6x from 4.3x at 30 June, against a quoted medium-term ratio of 2.0x to 2.5x, and buybacks are on hold. Coldrake, asked by Citizens analyst Jordan Bender when shareholder returns could resume, said "as and when we get back towards our quoted medium-term leverage ratio."

He also said promotional spend "is expected to remain at similar levels in Q4 and throughout 2027," producing a broadly flat net revenue margin year over year. Flutter expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $200 million in prediction markets this year and investment at "similar or higher levels" in 2027.

What Taylor inherits

What follows is analysis, drawn from the disclosures above.

Investors read the quarter differently depending on the hour. SBC reported shares down 2% at $82.10 in pre-market trading at 12:55pm UK time. Gambling Insider reported they opened 0.9% higher at $84.47 and were up 2.8% at $86.08 by 10:13 a.m. ET, still 64% below the 52-week high.

Taylor's stated priorities are defending US leadership, building in prediction markets, extracting more from the international portfolio and simplifying the operating model, with an extra $500 million of gross operating cost and capital expenditure savings targeted by 2029 through AI adoption, restructuring and technology simplification, per iGB and SBC.

He will set out more of the strategy with fourth-quarter results in February, according to Gambling Insider. The nearer test is whether promotional spend held at 6% of handle wins back sportsbook share through the NFL season, with Coldrake already saying US margins will not recover next year.